MARKET PULSE - APRIL 2025 TO JUNE 2025

The first quarter of FY2025–26 was an eventful one, marked by several key macro developments that impacted market sentiment.

The quarter began on a volatile note with the so-called "Trump Tariff Tantrum" on 7 April 2025, when the United States threatened to impose a 26% tariff on Indian goods. However, the subsequent announcement of a three-month pause in implementing the tariffs helped revive investor sentiment.

Just as stability was returning, India’s retaliatory strike against terrorist attacks in Kashmir led to a brief spike in geopolitical risk. Nevertheless, a ceasefire was announced, during which India claimed to have successfully neutralized multiple terror bases across the border. This swift resolution restored confidence, and markets rallied in response.

These improving sentiments, coupled with strong Q4FY24–25 earnings, provided a solid foundation for market performance through the quarter. The benchmark indices delivered robust gains, as shown below:

Index	1 April 2025	30 June 2025	Return (%)
Nifty 50	23,165	25,517	10.15%
Sensex	76,024	83,606	9.97%
CNX 500	21,070	23,617	12.09%

CNX500, which covers the first 500 companies of the Indian stock market representing more than 90% of the profit pool, gave the following numbers over last quarter last year.

Particulars Q4FY24-25 vs Q4FY23-24	Median Sales Growth	Median Operating Profit Growth	Median Profit After Tax Growth
CNX 500	10.63%	11.88%	14.97%

WHAT NEXT?

Corporate earnings and India – US trade tariff deal will decide the future trajectory of the market. Whilst the trade deal with US remains a mystery, as far as corporate earnings are concerned, we are coming from a low base of Q1FY24-25, hence, a high probability of better quarter numbers for Q1FY2025-26.

There is some sense of optimism on the Street for this quarter, which may show the trend of the market going ahead. With strong domestic inflows to continue and expectations of positive corporate earnings, we expect the markets to have an upward bias with intermediate bouts of volatility.

In case, the trade deal goes sour or/and the earnings disappoint and the market corrects, one could use the fall to buy.